AWWEW – A World Without Enough Work

Automation will displace half of all workers. What needs to be done?

Resources

Resource Center – In Depth Studies

  • Autor, David H, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer-2015, https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563– This essay focuses on the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. While automation does indeed substitute for labor, it also complements labor, raises output in ways that lead to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. A key observation of this paper is that journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor.
  • Castle, Tyler, et. al., “A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and the Future of Work”, American Enterprise Institute, 2016,  https://www.filepicker.io/api/file/oVtLEs5RSquQlguvJsKg – a compilation of essays concerning the opportunities and challenges of an ever-innovating world, and the impact on the future of work.
  • Katz, Lawrence and Krueger, Alan, “The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Sep-2016, http://www.nber.org/papers/w22667.pdf– study points to a significant rise in the incidence of alternative work arrangements in the U.S. economy from 2005 to 2015.
  • Atkinson, Robert, “AI, Robotics and the Future of Work”, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 23-Mar-2017,  https://euagenda.eu/upload/publications/untitled-80577-ea.pdf– focuses on the signs we’ve entered the 4thIndustrial Revolution, impact of AI-Robotics on jobs, pace of changes, and potential policy solutions.
  • Shift: Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology, “Report of Findings”, New America and Bloomberg, 16-May-2017,  https://docsend.com/view/4wizcjb – focuses on how much and what kind of work will be available over the coming decades that will steer our economic growth, technological progress, social health, physical geography, and political stability.
  • Katja, Grace, et. al., “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance”, University of Oxford  and Yale University, 30-May-2017,  https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf– results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI, and the probability and timing when AI may outperforms humans.

  • Devaraj, Srikant, et. al., “How Vulnerable Are American Communities to Automation, Trade, & Urbanization”, Ball State University: Center for Business and Economic Research, 19-Jun-2017,  https://projects.cberdata.org/reports/Vulnerability-20170619.pdf– study of the vulnerability of American communities to automation, trade and urbanization,including county-level analysis for all 50 states.

  • Lawrence, Mathew, et. al.,  “Managing Automation: Employment, Inequality and Ethics in the Digital Age”, IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, Nov-2017,  https://www.ippr.org/files/2018-01/cej-managing-automation-december2017.pdf– argues that public policy should seek to accelerate automation to reap the productivity benefits, while building new institutions to ensure the dividends of technological change are broadly shared.
  • World Economic Forum Insight Paper, “Towards a Reskilling Revolution: A Future of Jobs for All”, World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group, Jan-2018,  http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Reskilling_Revolution.pdf– introduces a data-driven approach to discovering reskilling pathways and job transition opportunities.
  • World Economic Forum White Paper, “Eight Futures of Work: Scenarios and Their Implications”, World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group, Jan-2018,  http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Eight_Futures.pdf– provides various scenarios of what the future of work might look like by the year 2030 based on the rate of technological change, impact on business models, and evolution of learning among the current and future workforce.
  • World Development Report 2019, “The Changing Nature of Work” (working draft), The World Bank Group, 02-Mar-2018,  http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/816281518818814423/2019-WDR-Draft-Report.pdf– investigates how technology is changing the nature of work, explores skills and investments that can protect workers, evaluates how successful economies are in generating human capital at work, explores how technological change affects the nature of the firm, and delves into the implications for social assistance, social insurance and labor market institutions.
  • Alden, Edward and Taylor-Kale, Laura, “The Work Ahead: Machines, Skills, U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century”, Council of Foreign Relations, Apr-2018,  https://cfrd8-files.cfr.org/sites/default/files/The_Work_Ahead_CFR_Task_Force_Report.pdf– focuses on the need to rebuild the links among work, opportunity, and economic security for Americans, and puts forward a number of policy prescriptions for government, business, educators, and nongovernmental institutions.
  • Chiacchio, Francesco, “The Impact of Industrial Robots on EU Employment and Wages: A Local Labour Market Approach“, Bruegel, 18-Apr-2018,  http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Working-Paper-AB_25042018.pdf– study of the impact of industrial robots on employment and wages in six European Union countries, that make up 85% of the EU industrial robots market.
  • Mishel, Lawrence, “Uber and the Labor Market”, Economic Policy Institute, 15-May-2018, https://www.epi.org/files/pdf/145552.pdf– paper seeks to provide clarity by offering a framework for understanding the gig economy, including common terminology, and the scale of gig work in the overall economy.

 

  • Accenture, “Maximizing Return on Digital Investments”, World Economic Forum – Digital Transformation Initiative, May-2018, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/DTI_Maximizing_Return_Digital_WP.pdf– This paper focuses on quantitative and qualitative analyses of existing digital investments, it provides a framework to give business leaders the best possible chance of addressing many challenges – driving cultural change, bridging the digital skills gap across workforce levels, changing customer expectations, data privacy and security – and maximizing the return on future investments.

 

  • Fikri, Kenan, et al., ”Escape Velocity: How elite communities are pulling away in the 21st century race for jobs, businesses, and human capital”, Economic Innovation Group, May-2018, https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Escape-Velocity-Report.pdf – Geographic inequality, spatial inequality, left-behind communities: These terms have entered the public lexicon in recent years as popular understanding of the place-based economic disparities that traverse the U.S. landscape has improved. Underneath national headline statistics, local economies are on steeply divergent trajectories …

 

 

  • Twomey, Paul, “Toward a G20 Framework for Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace”, Centre for International Governance Innovation, July-2018, https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/Paper%20No.178.pdf– This study proposes high-level principles for a framework for G20 governments, to enable the smoother, internationally broader and more socially acceptable introduction of big data and AI to the workplace.
  • Peralta-Alva, Adrian and Roitman, Augtin, “IMF Working Paper: Technology and the Future of Work”, International Monetary Fund, 28-Sep-2018, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/09/28/Technology-and-the-Future-of-Work-46203– This paper uses a DSGE model to simulate the impact of technological change on labor markets and income distribution. It finds that technological advances offers prospects for stronger productivity and growth, but brings risks of increased income polarization. This calls for inclusive policies tailored to country-specific circumstances and preferences, such as investment in human capital to facilitate retooling of low-skilled workers so that they can partake in the gains of technological change, and redistributive policies (such as differentiated income tax cuts) to help reallocate gains. Policies are also needed to facilitate the process of adjustment.
  • Benner, Chris, et. al., “Still Walking the Lifelong Tightrope: Technology, Insecurity and the Future of Work”, Everett Program, October-2018, http://www.everettprogram.org/main/wp-content/uploads/TIGHTROPE-2018-REPORT.pdf– The purpose of this report is to update our analysis of the prevalence and causes of economic insecurity and inequality in our information economy. The study focuses on Silicon Valley, the epicenter of economic re-structuring, but we think the lessons learned here have implications far beyond the region.
  • Budman, Matthew, et. al., “Deloitte Insights: Redefine Work”, Deloitte Center for the Edge”, Oct-2018, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/4779_Redefine-work/DI_Redefine-work.pdf-Underneath the understandable anxiety about the future of work lies a significant missed opportunity. This study focuses on have the potential to create significant new value for the enterprise. And paradoxically, these gains will likely come less from all the new technology than from the human workforce you already have today.
  • World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work, World Bank Group, November-2018, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/816281518818814423/pdf/2019-WDR-Report.pdf– This report focuses on the changing nature of work, including issues that need to be examined, and what needs to be done. The report argues that, on balance, concerns about robot-induced unemployment appear to be unfounded. Instead, the future of work is driven by the competing forces of automation and innovation, the other ‘AI’…
  • Anderson, Janna, et al., “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humans”, Pew Research Center, 10-Dec-2018, http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/12/10/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/– In a canvassing of experts conducted during the summer of 2018, some 979 technology pioneers, innovators, developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and activists answered the question – as emerging algorithm-driven artificial intelligence (AI) continues to spread, will people be better off than they are today?This report provides a summary of the results of this research project.
  • Leopold, Till Alexander, et al., “The Future of Jobs Report 2018”, World Economic Forum – Centre for the New Economy and Society, 2018, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2018.pdf– This biannual report provides a five-year outlook based on the latest thinking inside companies and is designed to inform other businesses, governments and workers in their decision-making, development of sector-level roadmaps and challenges of managing workforce transitions. Finally, this work acts as a test bed for early-stage work at the frontier of managing the future of work, ranging from the development of new principles for the gig economy to the adoption of common skills taxonomies across business and education.
  • Global Commission on the Future of Work, “Work for A Brighter Future”, International Labour Organization, 22-Jan-2019, https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—cabinet/documents/publication/wcms_662410.pdf– Countless opportunities lie ahead to improve the quality of working lives, expand choice, close the gender gap, reverse the damages wreaked by global inequality, and much more. Yet none of this will happen by itself. Without decisive action we will be heading into a world that widens existing inequalities and uncertainties.

 

 

 

  • Lalive, Rafael, et al., “AI and The Future of Work”, Credit Suisse Research Institute, Jan-2019, https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute.html– This report looks at the impact of artificial intelligence not only to business models but also to labor markets in the future. An enormous change is predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape, for organizations as well as for employees. Investing in appropriate artificial intelligence initiatives, providing economic security for those in the growing gig economy and understanding the legal and ethical challenges posed by new technology are all discussed.

 

  • Frank, Morgan, et al., “Towards Understanding the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Labor”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 28-Feb-2019, https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/14/6531.full.pdf – This paper discusses the barriers that inhibit scientists from measuring the effects of AI and automation on the future of work. These barriers include the lack of high-quality data about the nature of work (e.g., the dynamic requirements of occupations), lack of empirically informed models of key micro-level processes (e.g., skill substitution and human–machine complementarity), and insufficient understanding of how cognitive technologies interact with broader economic dynamics and institutional mechanisms (e.g., urban migration and international trade policy).

 

  • Pinto, Sergio and Graham, Carol, “Men Without Work”, Brookings Institute, Feb-2019, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/men_without_work_final_20190212.pdf– Despite progress in technology, reducing poverty, and increasing life expectancy, the poorest states lag behind, and there is increasing inequality and anomie in the wealthiest ones. A key driver of such unhappiness in advanced countries is the decline in the status and wages of low- skilled labor. A related feature is the increase in prime-aged males (and to a lesser extent women) simply dropping out of the labor force, particularly in the U.S.

 

 

  • Acemoglu, Daron and Restrepo, Pascual, “Automation and New Task: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”, MIT, 05-Mar-2019, http://economics.mit.edu/files/16817– This study provides a framework for understanding the effect of automation, including the displacement and reinstatement effect, and other types of technological changes on labor demand, and use it to interpret changes in US employment over the past years.

 

 

  • Zorob, Maysa, “The Future of Work: Litigating Labour Relationships in the Gig Economy”, Business & Human Rights Centre, Mar-2019, https://www.business-humanrights.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLA%20Annual%20Briefing-FINAL.pdf– This briefing focuses on legal aspects of one key element in the transformation of work, i.e. the gig economy. It is the frontline in the battle for the future of labor rights.It tests the ability of workers to retain their essential security and benefits in employment or see them sacrificed on the altar of securing higher revenues for shareholders.

 

 

 

  • Fuller, Joseph B. et al., “Future Positive: How Companies Can Tap into Employee Optimism to Navigate Tomorrow’s Workplace”, Boston Consulting Group and Harvard Business School, May-June, 2019 – https://www.hbs.edu/managing-the-future-of-work/Documents/Future%20Positive%20Report%205.20.pdf – In an attempt to understand the various forces shaping the nature of work, this study focused on the people most vulnerable to changing dynamics: lower-income and middle-skills workers. What was learned has serious and far-reaching consequences for managers and employees alike.

 

  • Escobari, Marcela, et al., “Growing Cities that Work for All: A Capability-Based Approach to Regional Economic Competitiveness”, Brookings Institute, May-2019, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GrowingCitiesthatWorkforAll-FINALforWeb.pdf – This report aims to provide insights to local leaders on how the rapidly changing economy is reshaping communities’ distinct advantages and opportunities. Because this plays out differently depending on the unique mix of industries in each city, and the implicit capabilities they depend on, each community needs to chart its own tailored strategies toward growth. The report propose a framework for regions to grow good jobs through capability-based industrial development strategies where firms specify the inputs they need to be productive and cities become more resilient and attractive as they invest in those inputs.

 

  • Autor, David H., “Work of the Past, Work of the Future”, American Economic Association, May-2019, https://economics.mit.edu/files/16724 – One of the enduring paradoxes that has accompanied the rise of wage inequality over the last four decades in industrialized economies is the sustained fall in real wages experienced by less-educated workers. This paradox is the subject of this paper. There are many potential explanations, including but not limited to eroding union penetration and bargaining power, falling federal and state minimum wages, rising trade pressure accompanying China’s rise as a manufacturing power, and the “fissuring” of the workplace, wherein less-educated workers no longer share in the gains from rising productivity and profitability in the core activities of their employers.

 

  • Cooper, Adrian, “How Robots Change the World”, Oxford Economics, Jun-2019, http://resources.oxfordeconomics.com/how-robots-change-the-world – The robotics revolution is rapidly accelerating, as fast-paced technological advances in automation, engineering, energy storage, artificial intelligence and machine learning converge. The far-reaching results will transform the capabilities of robots and their ability to take over tasks once carried out by humans. This study focuses on the trends driving the rise of robots, impact of automation on the workforce, and implication of robotization for regions with a high risk of labor disruption.

 

  • McGarvey, Darren, et al., “Four Futures: Love, Labour, and Language in 2035”, RSA Future Work Centre, Jun-2019, https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/images/blogs/2019/07/four-futures-short-stories.pdf – This analysis applied a “morphological analysis” method, drawing from desk research and expert sessions to identify the “critical uncertainties”, i.e. the most impactful, most uncertain drivers of change, before combining different outcomes from the range of possibilities to create four distinct, alternate futures for the world of work in 2035.

 

  • Benaich, Nathan, “State of AI Report”, stateof.AI, 28-Jun-2019, https://www.slideshare.net/StateofAIReport/state-of-ai-report-2019-151804430 – This report provides a comprehensive update on the state of AI, including a discussion of AI research and technology breakthroughs, talent, investment activity, industry use cases, vendor landscape, politics, China and predictions for 2019.

 

 

  • Tytler, Russell, et al., “100 Jobs of the Future”, Deakin University, Jul-2019, https://100jobsofthefuture.com/report/100jobsofthefuturereport-SCREEN.pdf – The focus of this research is to interrogate work futures through the predictive construction of ‘100 jobs of the future’, that go beyond generalities of trends and skills, and offer a grounded, but complex and imaginative projection of future work.

 

 

  • Henry-Nickie, Makala, et al., “Skills and Opportunity Pathways: Building an Inclusive Workforce for the Future”, Brookings Institute, 27-Jul-2019, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/skills-opportunities-pathways-071719.pdf – This report presents a framework that engages education policymakers and workforce planners in innovative ways. It assesses the scale and breadth of emerging trends across local job markets and intersects these data with regional innovation hubs to enhance the capacity of policymakers to design data-driven policies tailored to the strengths of individual ecosystems.